Please keep in mind the things I am talking about right now are not 100% confirmed but there seems to be a bit of a pattern and some shady stuff. The 3 things that concern me are the fact that Hellcase do not show odds for the specific items in a case, these skin shards that can be collected by opening certain boxes seems to be a little sketchy and last but not least a few sponsored Youtubers have gotten quite lucky with their daily row, to a degree where it is almost impossible.
What is the chance to get a good item?
So starting off with the odds, it is always worrying when a site does not show ratios for the specific items in a chest and neither has a probability system. Unless you blindly trust Hellcase for being one hundred percent honest and just depositing money without any additional questions. Personally, I would be pretty skeptical if I was not allowed to know the odds I have for each specific skin. This means, in reality, Hellcase could price a “Knife or nothing”-box at 100 dollars, they could just give me 90% chance of getting the bad items worth nothing and only 10% for the knife. If that was the case they would statistically pay back only 10% of the box’s price.
I do not say this is what is actually happening, at least they probably would not make the margin that big but just the fact that they indeed could cheat with the odds are concerning because let’s face it, these sites are made only to make money. Like that is not bad enough Hellcase sometimes puts their drops for sale, I remember at some point they took 20 percent of the “Premium Case” lowering its price from 35 to 28 dollars. At first sight that might look like a great deal to you but think about it, since they do not disclaim the odds what so ever they could simply just have made the ratio way worse for you and so the skins you will get from the case will just be equally cheaper as the chest gets cheaper.
How to collect the final 4th shard?
Going to the second fishy thing about their site is the skin shards. This is not as big of a deal as their missing odds but yet I do think it should be disclaimed on the page. For anyone who has not played here, those shards is a way to award users who gamble a lot. Each time you open a case you have a certain, unknown, chance of getting a skin shard and by collecting 4 of the same shards you will unlock that item, which can be instantly withdrawn.
The idea behind the system is great, the only problem is the 4th shard is almost impossible to get. If everything should be fair, every shard should have the same drop rate yet the 4th seems almost if not impossible to collect. When the odds for such drops are not disclaimed it is simply not ok to advertise with such bonus system when in reality you will most likely not get the final shard of any skin worth more than a few bucks.
Is it possible to win something in Daily Free raffle?
The 3rd and final thing I want to talk about is their daily bonus system. Once again the odds for each drop is unknown but after a month or so of daily spinning the wheel, you will get to know it is very rare to get anything except 1, 2 or 10 cents. Me and some friends did it for a month and out of the +100 rolls we once got 1 dollar and the rest were a few cents. What I am trying to say is the probability of getting 1 dollar is indeed very small, then just think of how low the odds of getting an ak-47 Vulcan worth 12 bucks might be or something even better looks like something near 0.
Keep this in mind because the Youtubers MojoOnPC and Juicy just recently made a sponsored video each. Normally they just tell about their Hellcase promocode which makes sense since that is a way for them to make money of affiliates but this time around both of them decided to show off the “daily free” feature and guess what? They both got the same Ak-47 Vulcan Battle-Scarred! Just a luck or maybe Hellcase just fixed the odds for them? That is up to you to decide but I definitely think it is very shady.
Is Hellcase.com legit? Vote!
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Hellcase does not have a direct house edge but one thing I see people often forget is the fact that you deposit real money to win csgo items. Depositing 100 dollars and ending up with 120 dollars worth of skins does not mean you have profited 20 dollars. CSGO skins are usually sold for around 70% in real cash compared to their Steam market value and so you have to profit quite a lot in order to actually make money. I feel like I need to say this since many people often forget this.
One of their unique features is their trade-up contracts. Basically, you can choose between 2 and 10 of your skins on the site and upgrade them to 1 item worth either less, equal or more than the total sum of the skins you used. I cannot recommend this feature, from what I have seen, in the most cases you will end up with a low-quality stuff worth a few dollars less than what you originally started with, it is super rare to make any profit of this feature.
- Many different priced cases
- Great look
- Big well-known service
- The odds are hidden
- Shady “skin shard” feature
- Possible rigged rolls for certain Youtubers
- No provability-system